Anyone who has tried to develop a market forecasting system - and there are many - deals with "inversions." For those unfamiliar with the term, an inversion is when you expect a time that is a high and the market deals you a low. Some of these may not cost so much, or perhaps some missed gains; but others mean you are caught on the wrong side of the market and probably stopped out with some losses.

I had two of these recently. I was expecting a lift into 4/18-19 high that became a low, and now the market is heading up into a time that I thought would be down. The 4/18-19 miss didn't cost that much as stops on longs were very tight since market had reached key target levels; but the idea of the market heading into a low in May was wrong and meant I and others who took those recommendations were stopped out.

I've had quite a string correct calls since 2012 Q3. All the green and red arrows were highs or lows called in advance, no more than 3 days total and then often fine-tuned in updates. But the last 2 turns were off. This is very frustrating from a forecasting and trading perspective - so close, but alas, so far. 

Yet what I will not do is go back and erase the call, pretend it didn't happen or say that I was off just a wee bit. I really try not to talk negatively about others in my communications but in this business such things do occur. I focus on my own timing and trading system, but this year have seen calls for a significant top erased the next day when the market powered higher; a service which recommends stops that are ignored when bragging about profits (ie, a position that would have been stopped out is advertised as a gain); a forecast that was right on 1 turn out of several which provided the opportunity for advertising campaign (and now already wrong just 2 weeks later); someone who has been very bullish on a certain sector that has actually crashed without even a hint of admitting they were wrong. This list can go on. 

I think very deeply about this work, and when wrong will mentally turn it over and over until satisfied that I understand why that was the case. Clients and those who follow my market commentary here or previously in other forums know that when right I will state simply that the call played out, and when wrong will admit it. Those that pretend otherwise do themselves and their clients & readers a dis-service. 


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In the last post, I said buyers were ready to come in at support, and so they did. The daily 50MA on the benchmark SPX held in a convincing fashion. But now onto a larger historical view.

Regardless of your political persuasion, if you are a student of the markets then it could be worthwhile to consider this chart.

This is a log scale quarterly chart of SPX which shows change via percent instead of points; this is a fairer comparison especially on very long term charts. Red and blue lines are drawn on the 1st quarter of each inauguration year and the respective presidents in charge listed above.

Now for summary data. If you want to fine tune it then you can go back to election days or actual inauguration days, but I'm keeping it simple and just using data for each presidential term from the Q4 closing value before the inauguration to the next. My eSignal / Qcharts data feed starts at Q2 1970 so for Nixon I will use the opening value there. 

Total results per presidency:

Nixon 1                        +31.1%
Nixon 2 & Ford           -9.0%
Carter                          +26.6%
Reagan 1                    +23.0%
Reagan 2                    +66.1%
Bush                            +56.9%
Clinton 1                      +70.0%
Clinton 2                      +78.2%
Bush Jr 1                     -8.2%
Bush Jr 2                     -25.4%
Obama 1                     +58.0%
Obama 2                         ?

Biggest % drop during term:

Nixon 1                        -23.1%
Nixon 2 & Ford           -48.2%
Carter                          -18.8%
Reagan 1                    -25.8%
Reagan 2                    -35.9%
Bush                            -20.1%
Clinton 1                     -9.7%
Clinton 2                     -21.1%
Bush Jr 1                    -44.4%
Bush Jr 2                    -53.0%
Obama 1                    -29.4%*
Obama 2                        ?

* Obama 1's worst drop was the first quarter of his term with move from 2009 Q1 H at 943 to low at 666. After that the worst was 2011 Q2 high to 2011 Q4 low for -21.6%.

Now for a simple reward vs risk score we can add the two figures together. This will mean a drop with negative results overall will be the worst presidential term for the market. Conversely, a strong gain with a minor decline will be the best. 

Reward / Risk score (total reward % - maximum pullback * 1):

Nixon 1                      +8.0
Nixon 2 & Ford         -57.2
Carter                        +7.8
Reagan 1                  -2.8
Reagan 2                  +30.1
Bush                          +36.8
Clinton 1                   +60.3
Clinton 2                   +57.2
Bush Jr 1                  -52.7
Bush Jr 2                  -78.4
Obama 1                  +28.5

Avg red score = -16.6, due to Nixon and Ford and both Bush Jr atrocities, along with Reagan's gains mitigated by large drops. 

Avg blue score = +38.5, spectacular reward vs risk in Clinton years and no disaster terms (so far). 

If people indicate interest, I will go into further detail and consider the average number of quarters up vs down for each presidency along with average gain or loss per quarter.


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In the last post on 4/11/2013, I noted that several time-frames on the benchmark SPX were overbought or near it using RSI. The monthly chart had closed in March at 70.4; weekly had been above 70 for 5 of 6 bars since the beginning of March; daily was getting close at at 67, and 4H was about there at 69.5. So far 4/11 is the high of the year.

However, I also pointed to the rally in the 1990s to illustrate that markets can get overbought and stay there. Although USA stock indexes are probably not in the same environment, it can still happen. Just look at what the Nikkei 225 has done in 2013; RSI on the weekly has been overbought the whole way. Obviously, exiting a long when the indicator first reached above 70 at the end of December 2012 would have missed another 28% gain, and any short would have been completely and repeatedly crushed. (ps: I'm not saying buy Nikkei here.)

So which is it? Do we have an overbought reversal here on SPX, or just a minor reaction down in a larger uptrend? Let's think about the current investment climate for USA equities. Retail investors have not really participated in the rally from the 2008-09 lows. According to a recent CNBC piece, mutual funds saw total withdrawals of $600 billion 2007 to 2012; 2013 has started to turn the tide with an inflow of $75 billion (as of the end of March), but obviously it will take a lot more to get back to 2007 levels. 

It would be helpful to include information on ETFs since they are gaining popularity as a mutual fund alternative, but I couldn't readily find data. Still it is fair to say that the average American retail client is not in the same position to buy stocks as the mid 1990s or mid 2000s. Just a few years ago many saw investment accounts get sliced in half; many people are still dealing with debt; and most face a more demanding yet less robust job market. In this climate stock market investing is just not on the high priority list. 

This leaves institutions: the Wall St companies, hedge funds, pension management firms, and so on. These are the big buyers in the market. Smart money does not like to buy high and sell low, for they have been well trained - buy low, sell high.

This means we are less likely to see the RSI frothiness of the 1990s and 2000s. Indeed, SPX made a new all time high just about a week ago, yet there seemed to be little celebration because a lot of the smart money saw overbought. That said, the very same money is quite ready to buy on support. Keep in mind the alternative - a 10 year Treasury is currently yielding just 1.70%. SPY, the ETF on SPX, currently yields more than the 10 year bond. 

In addition, valuations per current 12 month earnings on the S&P are still quite reasonable at 15.27. At 2013 estimated earnings, p/e is just over 14. Despite what I think of as negative timing the next few weeks, I don't think this pullback will go very far. And at already -3.8% from highs, most of it easily could be in.


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In the last key highs and lows update on 3/29 I said the high was "not quite yet" and this has proven very correct! We just had a major league breakout on the benchmark SPX. 

But a lot of timeframes are overbought or near it. (This refers to standard RSI settings; if you don't know what I mean then check this post.)

SPX monthly chart first. March RSI closed at 70.4, currently 71.7. The blue lines refer to the 2007 price high and monthly close high which were very near the 2000 top. As you can see, it is now above! 
 

Onto the weekly. RSI currently 73.3, but has been above 70 for all bars except one since the beginning of March. 

The daily SPX chart is not yet overbought but getting close. That said it has been overbought several times this year and trend has remained strong up. The daily chart was last oversold on 11/14-15/2012 which was an incredible buy for those who entered and held. 

It is not a rare thing for the 4 hour SPX chart to reach overbought in a strong uptrend, but still it is about there. 

All that said, does RSI matter when SPX has just had huge breakout above a 13 year level? I really don't know as there are not so many examples to back test.

And maybe the party is just getting started. Check the RSI on the SPX monthly chart from 1993 to 2000 below. RSI first reached 70 in in March 1993 with SPX at about 450. After a minor pullback it came close to overbought for several months in 1993, then reached 71 in January 1994. After another pullback the launch really started in 1995 and RSI was back above 70 in May 1995 with SPX closing at 533. It then stayed overbought until August 1998! That's over 3 years of consecutive overbought readings. SPX more than doubled with the monthly chart overbought the whole way. And even that wasn't the end of the move; after a few bars of pullback SPX rallied another 500 points or about 50%.

It doesn't seem like we have the economy of the mid 1990s when technology advances were changing so many facets of business, but monthly chart overbought is no guarantee the rally is done. 

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A quick review: the last post on the subject said I deemed 2/15 a possible key high, good enough for a drop but perhaps not enough to last 10 trading days. As it turned out the high that formed just one trading day later on 2/19 was followed by the biggest pullback of the year so far, but lasted only 9 trading days as a high since the market came roaring back and made a new high on 3/5.

I also hinted on 2/27 that the next key low "was not far off." (See the last line in this post.) My key low window was 2/28-3/4 which sounds like a lot but actually is just 3 trading days. This turned out to be a higher low by 15 SPX points on 3/1 compared to the actual low on 2/26. Since I recommended substantial buys to clients on 3/1 the red arrow is going there on the chart below. 

So far in 2013 I have had 3 key lows: 1/15-16, 1/30-31, then 2/28-3/4; and one possible (meaning may not last 10 trading days) key high on 2/15. These were all named well in advance; in fact the 3 key lows were listed in the 2013 Q1 map sent at the beginning of January. 

Where is my the next key high idea? All I will say here is "not quite yet" but you can subscribe to find out.


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This was sent to QT clients on 12/31/2012 for 2013 Q1. Nothing has been omitted or added from the original. See the review in the section below the original text called Results. 

"The overall theme of 2013 Q1 is improvement. In a rough sketch, January (especially the first half) is weaker; February should be stronger yet still at risk for deeper pullbacks and/or low tests; then March (especially the second half) is the most bullish.

USA markets are now primarily moving on the political issues of the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling. As of this writing a deal appears likely; however, it is not certain that it will pass the Congress. I don't know when these combined issues will be resolved to the market's satisfaction, yet can point to key timing. As with the examples from 2012 above, if larger uptrends are intact for 1/16-17 key lows (ie most bullish would be above the daily 20MA with a rising slope) then that would be a bullish setup. A bigger picture view is this: if the S&P remains above its weekly 50MA through the end of January, then Q1 should turn out bullish with a good chance of exceeding 2012 highs by quarter end. Given chart structures as of 12/31/2012, this is the preferred scenario.

A bearish scenario is still possible if Congress rejects any fiscal cliff deal and/or gets hung up on debt ceiling issues like July and August 2011. During that summer the drop of 4 weeks (weekly bars of 7/24, 7/31, 8/7 and 8/14) was -18% from high to low and took until mid January the following year (about 5 months) to fully recover. If the weekly 50MA breaks on weekly close in 2013, then it will take more work to recover the bullish territory. Markets may go lower into February or even some chance to the 3/1 key low. Even if the bearish scenario plays out in 2013, though, I don't expect the same amount of damage so the recovery period should be similarly reduced. Depending on the decline, it will take until late Q1 or early Q2 to be at the 2012 highs at 1474 SPX.

1/2 week: Probably up overall with 1/3-4 high.
1/7: Weaker 1/7-9, then some up. Mixed signals.
1/14: Down, especially into key lows 1/16-17. If deal is already done & passed then key pullback lows here.
1/21: Expecting up, especially into 1/22-23 high.
1/28: Mixed signals with 1/29-31 key low.
Note: If 1/29-31 low is higher than 1/16-17 then overall bullish. I think one of these two key lows will turn out a major low.
2/4: Expecting up.
2/11: Mixed signals.
2/18: Preferring up overall with 2/20 low.
2/25: 2/25-26 high, then down to 3/1 key low.
3/4: Some up.
3/11: Should be up.
3/18: Up overall with 3/19 pullback low.
3/25: Big breakout up. 3/28 will form some kind of high, but expecting higher highs in Q2. Therefore, there are no key highs listed for Q1.

Bottom line is that we should see improvement overall for the quarter. If you scan the weeks above, January has up / mixed / down / up / mixed with drop into 1/29-31. February is up / mixed / up / 2/25-26 high then weaker. March is some up / up / up with pullback / big up. The bullish scenario would be some up / range bound / struggle for most of January, a better move up in February, then a blast off in March (above 2012 highs) that probably continues higher in Q2. The bearish scenario would be down for January especially into 1/16-17 and 1/29-31, stabilization in February, recovery and still expecting a healthy move up in March after the 3/1 key low.

As of 12/31/2012, the SPX quarterly chart is in an uptrend with room to go higher. The monthly chart after 2 smaller blue bars is vulnerable to a drop yet still holding a rising support line. Therefore the bullish version is more likely for 2013 Q1. Even if it does not happen in a purely bullish fashion, I expect a decent blue bar for the quarterly chart on close. I am thinking 1500 minimum and chance 1550-75 (ie test of 2007 high)."

Results
1. First paragraph: January stronger than called but high for quarter on 3/28 so idea of continued bullishness was right. 

2. Second paragraph: Not bad. January did remain above the daily 50MA (purple line below), but did not exceed 2007 price highs by quarter end. But the index did make a new closing high on 3/28 and was just 6 points shy of price high target. 

3. Third paragraph: Not really applicable since preferred bullish scenario played out.

Week by week:
A. Up with high on 1/4, check.
B. Pullback low 1/8 then up, check.
C. Stronger than written but pullback low 1/15, 1 day off. 
D. Up into 1/22-23 and then some, fine. 
E. 1/31 low as called; 2/4 low was a bit lower by 2 points so 1/31 didn't hold 10 trading days but not bad.
F. 2/4 week did finish blue despite the first drop.
G. 2/11 week marked mixed signals and result was a tight range sideways bar, check.
H. Red bar, off although market did drop 2/20.
I. 2/25-26 high arrived on 2/26, and 3/1 was higher low; mixed.
J. 3/4 week up although market stronger than written.
K. 3/11 week some up.
L. Up overall with 3/19 pullback low, check.
M. Up with 3/28 high, check.

Many weekly summaries quite correct, most pretty good, a couple not quite right. 

4. Fourth paragraph: Not right as January was the biggest gain, February small blue bar and March decent blue bar.

5. Fifth paragraph: Preferred bullish with "1500 minimum and chance 1550-1575." Quarter 1 closed at 1569 so pretty much nailed it here. 

6. Key high and low review. 3 key lows were listed for Q1:
1. 1/16-17 key low, subsequently changed to 1/15-16 turned out pullback low.
2. 1/30-31 key low, turned out 1/31 pullback low although 2/4 was 2 points lower.
3. 3/1 key low, subsequently changed to 2/28-3/4; 2/26 was it although 3/1 did form next higher low, pretty close.
4. I didn't list a key high because didn't think any one date would hold as a high for 10 trading days, but updates called for noticeable drop in the second half of February with a possible key high on 2/15 (1 day off from 2/19 high). So these were all pretty close to important turns. 

Since starting to write these quarterly maps in 2012 Q3 I have gotten the basic move for each. See for yourself here. This one for 2013 Q1 was bullish and with SPX near 1425 said 1500 minimum and chance 1550-75 which was a score. The main thing off was that January was the biggest advance but in terms of where the lows came in it was quite correct. Soon I will do a Weekly View review as well.

I happen to be in the middle of a trip to Italy. These comments probably will be stating the obvious to European readers, but perhaps of some interest to Americans. I'm no way an expert on the matter and haven't studied the subject; but in two weeks here what is quite striking is the substantial differences between two regions of Italy.

Last week my girlfriend and I were in Firenze. Sure we had a pizza on our first night after a 12 hour flight, but after that ate mostly traditional Tuscan fare. We had a dinner of wild boar, another night of ribollita (bean & vegetable soup) and a pasta with fennel sausage, a lunch of tripe and finished our stay with a dinner of the traditional dish, bistecca alla fiorentina. 

This week I am in Verona and the food has completely changed. We are seeing polenta and risotto, anchovies and gorgonzola cheese. Even though most people would think of these items as typically Italian I didn't see any of them in Tuscany at all.

The wines are all different as well. In Florence we drank Chianti, splurged on Brunellos and saw Vin Santo on every menu for dessert. Here we have had Valpolcella, sampled some upscale Amarones, and see a collection of grappas at most bars.

This is simply the level of cuisine. We also see tremendous differences in architecture, design, fashion, etc.

Yet the distance between these two cities is only about 235 km or under 150 miles.

The distance from San Francisco to Los Angeles is much more than this. While there may be particular dishes in SF that are not exactly replicated in LA and vice-versa, I'll bet that menus and wines are much more alike.

On to the larger point. This EU project is really a remarkable experiment. The differences in just a few hours travel are so noticeable - how to unite the entire continent enough to function?

The recent Italian election presses the issue. To American media like CNBC, Mario Monti was the responsible banker who did a good job cleaning up Silvio's corrupt mess. To many Italians, he was just an assisistant to Angela Merkel. And that is a big reason why he wound up with so little of the vote.

Granted we have large differences in the USA as well. To the liberal cities on the coasts, some Republicans might as well be from a foriegn country. And many Democrats wish they were. But a split of California is just not an option.

If traveling just 150 miles in Italy brings different food, wine, art, design, etc, then how to mange a entire continent of different cultures and languages in an economic and somewhat political union? It seems that strains are a matter of time. And yet the doubters (like Euro shorts summer 2012) have been proven wrong again and again.

I offer no conclusions here, just amazement of this truly historic project and wonder how it will last. 

Readers familiar with my work know that I try to calculate key turns in advance using unique timing methods. The last post on the subject reviewed all my key high and low calls of 2012 to that point.

See below for an updated version of the chart and my calls for 2013. Each red arrow (key low) or green arrow (key high) was specified at least 2 weeks in advance and often much more than that.

As you can see I missed the important 12/31 low (which I had a low, but didn't say "key" in advance). 

The 1/15 key low was a pullback low that held for at least 10 trading days and a good spot to get in long.

The 1/31 key low was pretty close but not quite with a slightly lower low on 2/4 just 2 points below; but that drop was expected so not too bad.

The next call was for 2/15 possible key high which turned out 1 trading day off; forecast updates were looking for SPX high zone 1427-43. It was qualified with "possible" because I thought we would get a real pullback after it passed, but wasn't sure it would hold for 10 trading days. As it turns out so far we have seen a real drop yet equally impressive comeback.

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Monthly bars for January just closed, so it's a good time to review the charts for a broader view. I am going to comment here and list the charts below. Just match the numbers of the comments to the charts underneath.

1. SPX M: Very strong uptrend with this chart above its 20MA (orange line) on close basis since October 2011; the 20MA has been the smart money buy in December 2011, May and June 2012, and then held again on a near test in November 2012. This chart makes it clear that SPX wants to test its 2007 high. I'll be watching both the price and monthly close highs shown by the blue lines. The real question is not if gets there but whether it goes higher. 

2: INDU M: Has been leading this phase of the rally, and already entering its 2007 high zone. Reaction from 2007 price high at nearly 14200 will be important. So far it is approaching it in a manner that suggests new highs and not a failure. 

3. RUT M: Less known but useful indicator of breadth is the Russell 2000. As you can see it has already made substantial new all time highs. This is very bullish as it means smaller caps are not just participating but leading the rally (after lagging for move much of 2012).

4. NDX M: Still stuck under the 50% retracement of the 2000H to 2002L. Looks quite dull in comparison to SPX, INDU and RUT as it is still well under its 2012H, and did not join in the January blast-off. 

5. NDXE M: The other indexes are relatively common but here's one you don't see often. It is the NDX equal weight index. The NDX (like SPX) is a market capitalization weighted index where the biggest companies have more sway. As it says, the equal weight index gives the same portion for each stock. As you can see this index looks quite healthy. Although I only have data back to 2005 (not sure if index existed before), it is well above its 2012 high.

So what is the issue? How can NDX look so bad while the equal weight index is blasting off like the others? Very simple answer on chart 6.

6. AAPL M: Ugh, down huge 4 months in a row. Appears to be referencing its June 2010 low on Fibs with 2 bars at 38% or 511 and then a drop down to 50% at 452. Any lower would point to 392. In MA (moving average) terms, a break of the 20MA often means a visit to the 50MA (purple line). Unfortunately for AAPL fans, the monthly chart can easily go lower. 

All the indexes are ripping higher. While there are other companies that are lagging or even down, the problem isn't technology sector, but just mostly AAPL. 

While we're at it lets check 2 more.

7. TLT M: This is a commonly referenced ETF for bonds that includes both 10 year and 30 year Treasuries. I actually prefer the actual yield charts ($TNX and TYX respectively) but wanted to make something very clear here. Bonds are down from multi-decade highs, but on a key Fib level at 115.35. If that holds stocks may cool off, but if bonds are down stocks continue up. There is quite a long way down to the next support on this chart.

8. GLD M: Gold had an incredible run in the 2000s and just had minor damage in 2008 when stocks got sliced in half. It continued its run through a 2011 with a nearly parabolic top, but hasn't done much since then. Its 20MA is starting to crack. As should be apparent from AAPL and TLT monthly charts, breaking the 20MA can turn out badly. 

Stocks, excepting AAPL, are the place to be. (But that doesn't mean I am saying buy Monday.)

In the last post I pointed out that VIX, while at multi-year lows, could go lower. And that meant stocks could continue higher. As it turned out the VIX low so far was 1/18 but stayed in bullish territory through 1/24 (meaning not significantly up) and stocks maintained the trend; but on Friday when SPX was again making new highs VIX put in a blue reversal bar. It will be interesting to see what happens. 

In the past week even I was not bullish enough. Shorter time-frame charts on the main index (SPX and the futures) reached momentum extremes I have not seen in quite some time. While positive timing certainly played a part, I am also considering the QE fuel from FOMC in the full tank amount of 85 billion a month. 

Granted the Fed is not buying futures, but Treasuries and other mortgage backed securities; yet *someone* is getting $US and it appears they are buying stocks. 

Check the SPX weekly chart below which marks the various FOMC actions since 2008. 

QE1 was first announced in late November 2008, and then more than doubled (up to 1.25 trillion in MBS) in March 2009; these purchases ran through March 2010.* This coincided with a huge rally in S&P that made what is likely a generational low in March 2009 and rallied with an important top soon after in April 2010. After a run of 83% from the low, there was a pullback of 17%.

QE2 was telegraphed by Ben in August 2010 and then officially announced in November; these ran through June 2011. If you include the "Jackson Hole" speech in August, this coincided with a 31% rally that topped in May 2011. A 19-21% drop followed (depending on which low to count, August or October).

In September 2011 the FOMC began Operation Twist. This is not true easing since it was a balance sheet neutral program, but another extraordinary action designed to keep long term rates low. As it happened stocks made a major low in early October 2011 and have been in an uptrend since then, currently up nearly 40% from October 2011. Operation Twist was expanded in June of 2012 (again near a low).

The FOMC has learned the lesson to keep the money flowing. QE3 was telegraphed in the summer of 2012 and officially announced in September. This turned out to be a sell the news event, but since doubling QE in December the market has been quite strong. Unlike QE1 and QE2 there is no set amount or end date to the program; but instead tied to a lower unemployment rate. I have drawn the green line to the end of 2013. Although there are occasional rumblings of ending it sooner Ben has made it clear that he expects the programs to remain in place for quite some time. I have been calling it "QE infinity times two." 

Keep in mind all the easing and twisting this is on top of very low interest rates that have been in place throughout, with the FOMC target of federal funds rate between 0 and .25%. 

Regardless of whether you think these moves are cause or coincidence, the fact is the market is in a strong uptrend. With the exception of April 2012, the weekly chart has pushed to overbought levels before a larger drop. Weekly RSI is currently 65; getting up there, but room to go higher.

If the market was able to rally half in percentage terms of its QE2 rally of 31%, so let's say 15%, this would give a target of 1545 if projected from the November low. If it can rally 20%, then we see above 1600.

Ben was appointed on February 1, 2006. The crash occurred on his watch. I think returning the market to its 2007 high is a point of pride for him. He will chair the FOMC until the end of January 2014. At 1400, even 1300, the market is not at crisis levels. While Ben has said that all this easing and twisting is designed to lower unemployment, I think he really wants to leave with the market completely recovered from 2008.

* For a detailed FOMC timeline see this.